What we know so far
The White House has declared that United States tariffs on trading partners, including South Africa, are permanent and will intensify through new trade investigations, marking the one-year anniversary of the Trump administration’s so-called Liberation Day tariff programme.
White House Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai said the tariff strategy has proved highly successful for the United States, narrowing key trade deficits in 12 months and serving as a key negotiation tool, with the US securing more than 20 trade deals with major partners.
Desai pointed to ongoing Section 301 investigations and national security tariffs under Section 232 as mechanisms that will allow the administration to expand its tariff reach.The remarks came as public hearings on the Section 301 forced labour investigation, which covers South Africa and 59 other economies, approach on 28 April 2026.
The United States Trade Representative initiated the Section 301 investigations on 12 March 2026 to determine whether the failure of 60 economies to ban imports of goods made with forced labour is unreasonable or discriminatory and burdens US commerce.
The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition has confirmed that Pretoria received communications regarding the investigation but has not publicly disclosed the specific terms of the US enquiry.
Why it matters
The investigation represents the latest escalation in a deteriorating trade relationship between Washington and Pretoria that has unfolded over the past year. For South Africa, the stakes are considerable: the US remains one of the country’s most important export markets, with more than 500 American companies operating locally and employing over 250 000 South Africans.
The timeline of pressure has been relentless. The Trump administration announced its Liberation Day tariffs on 2 April 2025, imposing a 30% reciprocal tariff on South African exports, one of the highest rates on the African continent. Those tariffs took effect on 7 August 2025 after a 90-day negotiation pause failed to produce a deal.
On 20 February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled in a 6-3 decision that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorise the president to impose tariffs, striking down the IEEPA-based tariff regime. Rather than retreating, the administration responded within hours by imposing a new 15% universal tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a provision designed for balance-of-payments emergencies and limited to 150 days.
That replacement tariff is itself now facing legal challenge. Twenty-four mostly Democratic-led US states and two small businesses have sued to block the Section 122 tariffs, arguing the Trade Act’s authority is meant only for short-term monetary emergencies and that routine trade deficits do not meet the statutory definition. A hearing took place before the US Court of International Trade on 10 April 2026.
With the Section 122 tariffs set to expire on 24 July 2026, the Section 301 investigations are widely viewed as the administration’s mechanism for re-establishing permanent tariff authority through a different legal pathway. Legal analysts at Davis Wright Tremaine noted that the investigations are expected to produce country-specific tariffs that closely mirror the rates previously imposed under IEEPA.
Key details and figures
The Section 301 forced labour investigation covers 60 economies, including major US trading partners such as China, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. The USTR cited International Labour Organization estimates that as of 2021, 28 million people globally were subject to forced labour. The investigation will assess whether trading partners have adequately enforced bans on importing goods produced through forced labour.
Written public comments were due by 15 April 2026, and hearings will commence on 28 April at the US International Trade Commission in Washington, continuing as necessary until 1 May.
The investigation runs alongside a separate Section 301 probe into structural excess manufacturing capacity in 16 economies, announced on 11 March 2026. South Africa is not named in that investigation, but several of its key trading partners are.
The DTIC has been in active negotiations with the US since the announcement of the Liberation Day tariffs, but no official deal has been struck. BusinessTech The negotiations have been complicated by a fundamental mismatch in approach. South Africa has pursued a strictly trade-focused strategy, while Washington has layered political and ideological demands into the process.
US Ambassador to South Africa Leo Brent Bozell III, speaking at the BizNews Conference in Hermanus in March, revealed that Washington had presented Pretoria with five demands roughly a year earlier and had received no formal response. Those demands reportedly cover rural crime and farm murders, the “kill the boer” chant, expropriation without compensation, BBBEE policy, and South Africa’s foreign policy alignments, particularly its relationships within BRICS and its case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.
South Africa’s Department of International Relations and Cooperation subsequently issued a diplomatic note of protest to Bozell over the remarks, and the ambassador later expressed regret for the tone of his comments.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, which provides preferential US market access to qualifying African countries, was renewed in February 2026 and remains in effect until 31 December 2026. However, the list of eligible countries can be updated at any time, and there have been Congressional efforts to remove South Africa from the programme.
The DTIC director-general, Simphiwe Hamilton, told Parliament’s portfolio committee in March 2026 that the department’s target of improving trade relations with the US had been challenged by developments beyond South Africa’s control.
What happens next
The immediate focus is the 28 April public hearing in Washington, where the Section 301 Committee will hear testimony from interested parties across all 60 investigated economies. USTR Jamieson Greer has indicated the administration intends to conclude the investigations on an accelerated timeline, with outcomes expected before the Section 122 tariffs expire on 24 July 2026.
If the investigation finds that South Africa has not adequately enforced bans on goods produced with forced labour, the USTR may recommend new tariffs or trade restrictions under Section 301 authority. Greer has stated that countries unable to resolve flagged issues could face tariffs or fees, and that the administration intends to move within months.
The legal landscape remains volatile. The Section 122 tariff challenge before the Court of International Trade could produce a ruling that further constrains the administration’s tariff options, though the outcome remains uncertain. More than 1 000 businesses have filed suits seeking refunds of the invalidated IEEPA tariffs, with total collections estimated at between $160 billion and $179 billion.
For South Africa, the path forward involves navigating simultaneous pressures: responding to the Section 301 investigation, protecting AGOA eligibility, continuing bilateral trade negotiations, and managing the broader diplomatic rift with Washington over political demands that Pretoria has so far declined to address.
The DTIC has established an Export Support Desk to assist companies affected by US tariffs and has indicated it is working on market diversification strategies, including expanding trade with countries in Asia, the Middle East, and within the African Continental Free Trade Area framework. Whether those efforts can offset the potential loss of preferential US market access remains an open question.
