What the latest CEF snapshot shows
The record fuel prices South Africa is heading for in October have moved sharply higher over the past week, and the reason is not the one being reported.
Central Energy Fund data now points to an increase of R2.14 a litre for 95 octane petrol and R2.02 for 93, with diesel rising between R1.71 a litre for 500ppm and R2.05 for 50ppm. If those figures hold to month end, 95 unleaded would reach R28.19 at the coast and R29.06 in Gauteng.
Diesel would break its own record. The projected Gauteng wholesale price of R31.60 for 50ppm would pass the previous high set in May.
Nothing is confirmed. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources announces the official adjustment in the last days of September, and the figures have already moved. A week ago the same snapshot pointed to an increase of R1.93 on 95 octane. Brent crude traded close to $110 a barrel on Friday after breaching $100 earlier in the week.
Southafriworld reported on 8 September that the projection then stood at R28.85 for inland 95. Published accounts also differ on the previous diesel record, with the May figure reported as both R31.38 and R31.88.
What is driving record fuel prices South Africa now faces
The barrel price is the number in every headline. It is not the number that sets South Africa’s pump price.
South Africa has no natural oil reserves and insufficient refining capacity to meet its own fuel needs, which makes it a net importer of refined product rather than crude. What matters is what refined petrol and diesel cost on international markets, and those have moved far more than crude has.
Frank Blackmore, lead economist at KPMG, put the gap in numbers. Refined fuel products have seen “an over 100% increase over time, while crude has only gone up around 30%” across the same period, he said, adding that it is the refined products driving much of the pressure.
That is a ratio of more than three to one, and it changes what the story is about. A country that refined its own fuel would be exposed to the crude price. A country that imports finished product is exposed to the crude price plus whatever the world’s refiners are charging on top of it.
Taxes and levies sit on top of that again. Codera Analytics economist Jan-Hendrik Pretorius has calculated that taxes and levies represent about 30% of the petrol pump price in South Africa, having dropped to around 20% during the months when the general fuel levy was temporarily cut. Because those amounts are set in rands rather than as percentages, their share of the pump price moves inversely with the basic fuel price.
The refining capacity that closed
| Facility | Daily capacity | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Sasol Secunda, coal-to-liquids | 150,000 to 160,000 barrels | Operating |
| Sasol NATREF | 100,000 barrels | Operating |
| Astron Energy | 100,000 barrels | Operating |
| SAPREF, Durban | 180,000 barrels | Closed in 2022 |
| Net capacity lost since 2020 | 260,000 barrels | Three facilities shut |
The number of fuel refining facilities in South Africa has halved since 2020, taking 260,000 barrels a day of capacity out of the system over five years. Two crude refineries remain, NATREF and the Astron Energy plant, alongside Sasol’s Secunda synthetic fuels operation.
SAPREF was the largest refinery in the country before it closed. The Central Energy Fund has bought the land from previous owners Shell and BP and says it plans to restart operations there, with no date announced.
Blackmore said that capacity is exactly what would have insulated motorists. “We used to have a lot more refineries in South Africa, and we could have bypassed a lot of this cost pressure,” he said, noting that buying refined fuel abroad subjects the country to larger price swings than it would otherwise have faced.
What it costs a household
For a motorist with a 40-litre petrol tank, the September increase and the projected October increase together would add at least R139 to a fill-up. A 60-litre tank would cost about R209 more.
Diesel is worse. The combined September and projected October increase for 50ppm diesel is R5.20 a litre, which makes a 40-litre refuel R208 more expensive and a 70-litre fill-up R364 more.
Measured from March, before the first fuel shock of the year, a 40-litre petrol fill-up would be around R350 more expensive by October and a 60-litre tank roughly R526 more. For 50ppm diesel the increases would be around R550 for 40 litres and R963 for 70 litres.
The cost does not stop at the pump. Minibus taxi associations have already announced fare increases of roughly R3 to R6 on some city routes and R10 to R30 on some long-distance journeys this year, with further increases possible as the September and October shocks work through.
Diesel accounts for between 35% and 55% of operating costs for road freight companies, according to the Road Freight Association. On that basis the latest diesel increase alone could lift overall operating costs by roughly 4% to 6%, depending on the operation, route and vehicle type. Operators can absorb some of that or recover it through fuel-adjustment clauses in contracts, so freight rates do not necessarily rise by the same amount.
Southafriworld has tracked the earlier stages of the same pass-through, including beef prices rising 30% and the rising cost of a monthly grocery basket.
Why no levy cut is coming
Government cut the general fuel levy by R3 a litre in April and May, and took the diesel levy to zero for part of that period, as Southafriworld reported at the time in its coverage of the April fuel levy relief. The relief was phased out and the levies returned to R4.10 a litre for petrol and R3.93 for diesel from 1 July.
That intervention cost R17.2 billion in foregone tax revenue between April and June, against a projected R105 billion in gross fuel levy revenue for the 2026/27 financial year.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has signalled that it will not be repeated. Responding to a parliamentary question this month, he said “permanently offsetting these increases through the budget would ultimately shift the cost to taxpayers” or increase government borrowing, and that providing additional relief must be weighed against other spending priorities, taxation and borrowing.
Government has announced a review of administered prices, including the fuel price formula, which was flagged in April. No outcome has been published.
Several things remain open. The official October adjustment has not been announced and the snapshot is still moving. The Central Energy Fund has given no restart date for SAPREF. And no forecast has been published for how long refined product margins will stay at their current levels relative to crude.
