What SAWS has actually forecast
The El Niño South Africa faces this summer is stronger on paper than any in recent memory, and the country is meeting it from a far better starting position than it did in 2015.
The South African Weather Service said on 1 September that El Niño is likely to intensify further and could become the strongest event in living memory. Its own classification puts a strong event at a three-monthly averaged sea surface temperature anomaly above 1.5°C in the east-central tropical Pacific, and a very strong event at 2°C. Forecasts indicate the current event is very likely to exceed 3°C.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in August that El Niño was strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event through the northern hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026/27.
SAWS issued its Seasonal Climate Watch on 31 August. For October to December 2026, below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome over most of South Africa, and above-normal temperatures are very likely. The weather service warned that if the expected below-normal rainfall materialises, “it is likely that a high frequency of heatwaves will co-occur” and that those heatwaves “have the potential to be severe”.
SAWS also set a limit on what the forecast means. The 1982/83 and 2015/16 events brought widespread drought, but the very strong 1997/98 event was associated with slightly above-normal rainfall over parts of the summer rainfall region. Below-normal rainfall is statistically the most likely outcome, the weather service said, but not every El Niño is associated with drought.
Minister of Agriculture Willie Aucamp responded to the Seasonal Climate Watch by assuring farmers and farming organisations that government would work with the sector to mitigate drought impacts through the 2026/27 season. Southafriworld first reported on the developing El Niño warning in July.
What El Niño South Africa forecasts say about the summer crop
The maize belt is where the money is. The Free State, North West and Mpumalanga produce about 82% of South Africa’s commercial maize crop, much of it dryland, which means it depends entirely on rain.
South Africa enters the season with the largest harvest it has recorded. The Crop Estimates Committee put the 2025/26 summer grain and oilseed crop at 21.49 million tonnes, up 5% year on year, with maize at 17.25 million tonnes, up 4% and the largest on record.
Grain SA has modelled the downside. If a severe El Niño develops with drought conditions similar to 2015/16, it estimates maize yields could decline by between 33% and 37%, and soya bean yields by about 33%, with sunflower more resilient.
Applying that yield range to the record crop, and holding planted area constant, gives roughly 10.9 to 11.6 million tonnes. That is a Southafriworld calculation from the two published figures, and it is an approximation, because Grain SA’s percentages describe yields while total production also depends on how much land farmers plant.
The comparison matters more than the number. Agbiz records that the mild mid-summer drought of 2023/24 cut maize to 12.9 million tonnes, the severe droughts of 2017/18 and 2018/19 produced an average of 11.8 million tonnes, and the 2014/15 and 2015/16 seasons averaged around 8.9 million tonnes.
Paul Makube, senior agricultural economist at FNB Commercial, said the El Niño forecast poses a significant risk to summer crops, but that South Africa is unlikely to need substantial maize imports during 2026 or 2027. Imports would come into consideration beyond 2027 if El Niño persists into a second season.
Wandile Sihlobo, Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land and chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, has pointed to the same buffer, noting that rain continued to May 2026 when summer rains usually end in March, improving dam levels, soil moisture and water tables, and that large carryover grain stocks should soften the food price impact. Food carries a weighting of about 16.8% in the inflation basket, which is why a maize shortfall reaches households through the till rather than the farm gate. Southafriworld reported this year on beef prices rising 30% as earlier cost pressure worked through the food chain.
The country is starting from a full tank
The figure that has not appeared alongside the El Niño coverage is what is actually in the dams.
| Province | Dam storage, 3 August 2026 |
|---|---|
| North West | 102.4% |
| Free State | 100.2% |
| Limpopo | 98.9% |
| Mpumalanga | 98.4% |
| Gauteng | 98.1% |
| Eastern Cape | 89.2% |
| KwaZulu-Natal | 87.5% |
| Northern Cape | 86.0% |
| Western Cape | 79.6% |
| National average | 95.9% |
Those are Department of Water and Sanitation weekly readings, and 3 August is the most recent national figure published at the time of writing. The three provinces producing most of the country’s maize were all at or near capacity.
High aggregate storage is not the same as water security. Individual catchments can be in crisis while the national average looks comfortable, and municipal distribution losses determine whether stored water reaches taps. Southafriworld has reported on the national assessment finding 47% of municipal water systems in a critical state, up from 39% three years earlier.
Cape Town is the exception
One system is moving in the opposite direction, and it is the one that cannot be rescued by summer rain.
Cape Town’s six-dam supply system stood at 75.4% on 8 September 2026, down 18 percentage points on the same week a year earlier. Voëlvlei was at 59% against 100% the year before, Theewaterskloof at 76% against 87%, and Berg River at 91% against 100%.
Cape Town is a winter rainfall city. It fills its dams between roughly May and August and draws them down through summer, which means early September is close to its annual peak. Starting the drawdown 18 points lower than last year is a materially different position.
El Niño is not the cause. SAWS has stated that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation mainly affects South Africa during the summer months, and that the emerging event was not the driving force behind the dry outlook for the southwestern and southern coastal areas. The Western Cape’s shortfall is a separate problem arriving at the same time.
What is not yet decided
Seasonal forecasts describe probabilities. SAWS updates its Seasonal Climate Watch monthly, and the next update will refine the October to December picture before planting decisions are finalised.
Eastern summer grain and oilseed regions begin planting in about a month, and soil moisture in those areas is good following the extended 2025/26 rainfall season. What matters from there is the timing of rain during flowering rather than the seasonal total.
Several things remain open. No national drought declaration has been made. The Department of Water and Sanitation has not published new national restrictions. And no figure has been published for what preventive spending on water infrastructure, nutrition programmes or heat-health planning would cost, or whether it has been budgeted.
The next Seasonal Climate Watch is due at the end of September, and the Crop Estimates Committee will publish its first planting intentions figures for the 2026/27 season in October.
