Petrol crosses R30 a litre for the first time on Wednesday. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources has confirmed increases of more than R3 a litre for both petrol grades and for low-sulphur diesel, effective from 00:01 on Wednesday, 7 October 2026.
| Fuel | Increase | Inland | Coastal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 95 | R3.33 a litre | R30.25 | R29.38 |
| Petrol 93 | R3.12 a litre | R29.88 | R29.09 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R3.24 a litre | R33.29 | R32.03 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R2.84 a litre | R31.95 | R31.08 |
| Illuminating paraffin (wholesale) | R3.58 a litre | R24.47 | R23.41 |
| LP gas | 42c a kilogram | R37.81/kg | R37.08/kg |
Both headline fuels set records. Petrol 95’s previous high was R28.06 in June. Diesel 0.005% peaked at R31.88 wholesale in May.
Only inland 95 crosses R30. Inland 93 stops 12 cents short, and coastal 95 sits at R29.38.
The diesel figures are regulated wholesale prices. Forecourts set their own margin above them, so the diesel price at the pump will vary by station.
Paraffin carries the biggest increase
Illuminating paraffin rises R3.58 a litre, more than any of the five liquid fuels and 25 cents more than petrol 95. Paraffin is a cooking, heating and lighting fuel for households without electricity or unable to afford it. It is not a motoring fuel. The largest increase this month lands on a fuel bought for homes, not cars.
The R3.58 is the wholesale price. Households buy under a regulated retail ceiling, the single maximum national retail price, which is set separately and usually moves by more than the wholesale figure. In July, when paraffin fell, the wholesale price dropped R5.23 a litre and the retail ceiling dropped R6.97.
What it costs per kilometre
A litre price is not a unit anybody drives in. A kilometre is.
| Fuel use | Cost per km in March at R20.30 | Cost per km in October at R30.25 | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 litres per 100km | R1.22 | R1.82 | About 60c |
| 8 litres per 100km | R1.62 | R2.42 | About 80c |
| 10 litres per 100km | R2.03 | R3.03 | About R1.00 |
| 12 litres per 100km | R2.44 | R3.63 | About R1.19 |
Those are Southafriworld calculations on inland petrol 95 prices. An individual vehicle’s consumption will differ, and coastal petrol 95 is 87 cents a litre cheaper.
On a 40 kilometre daily round trip over 22 working days, a car using 8 litres per 100km covers 880 kilometres a month. In March that cost about R1 429 in fuel. In October it costs about R2 130.
That is about R700 a month more than the same commute cost seven months ago, or about R8 400 over a year if the price holds. The illustration uses a stated distance, not an average, so substitute your own.
A petrol bakkie at 12 litres per 100km pays about R1 051 a month more than in March on the same commute. A diesel bakkie at 10 litres per 100km faces about R1 293 more, measured on the wholesale price of 0.005% diesel, which has gone from R18.60 in March to R33.29. The forecourt figure will differ, because retailers set their own margin above wholesale.
Where the extra 32 cents came from
Southafriworld projected R29.93 for petrol 95 on 25 September, from mid-review data. The official price is R30.25. Two things account for the 32 cents.
The first 28 cents came in the final days of the review window. On 25 September the Central Energy Fund’s data showed petrol 95 under-recovering by R3.01 a litre. When the window closed at the end of the month, the figure was R3.29.
Part of that move was the rand. It weakened from near R16.30 to about R16.70 to the dollar, and the cushion it had been providing, about 15 cents a litre earlier in the month and about six cents on 25 September, disappeared. The rest was international product prices, which stayed high to the end of the window.
The remaining 4 cents is the slate levy. The department raised it by 4.38c, from 83.28c to 87.66c a litre, which is why each petrol and diesel increase is about four cents higher than the Central Energy Fund’s closing figure. The slate levy recovers the cumulative under-recoveries carried by the fuel industry. It is not a tax.
Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop said the rand has returned to its characteristic volatility as markets absorb higher oil prices, higher inflation and higher interest rates. She noted it dropped below R16.00 early in the month before the escalation in the Middle East, then weakened on the United States interest rate decision amid concerns over energy prices.
She said the relatively modest scale of foreign sales of South African debt has limited the rand’s weakness, and that the local interest rate increase briefly halted it.
With the currency contributing little, the October adjustment rests on the international product price, which stayed high through the review period, plus the slate levy.
The relief that arrived too late
Oil fell below 100 dollars a barrel on Friday, 2 October, after France proposed that developed nations and International Energy Agency members release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from strategic reserves. On Monday, eNCA reported that the G7 had agreed to the release and that oil prices were falling.
That is a real move. It does nothing for this adjustment, because the review period had already closed. Prices are averaged across the window, not taken on the last day. If oil holds lower, it feeds into the November review, which is running now.
Government relief looks unlikely this time. Treasury cut the general fuel levy earlier this year to cushion motorists. Tracey-Lee Solomon, an economist at the Bureau for Economic Research, told CapeTalk in September that there may not be enough room for Treasury to reduce the fuel levy again.
The underlying picture going into the fourth quarter is not favourable. Refineries are running hard to meet demand ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter. Chinese exporters have cancelled some October product cargoes to prioritise domestic supply. Russia has extended its ban on most diesel exports through October.
Diesel is the line to watch. At R33.29 wholesale it sets the cost of moving goods. AutoTrader estimates that diesel makes up 35% to 55% of road transport operating costs, and that cost reaches shelves over the following weeks and months as food price pressure.
What a household can actually do about it
Very little, which is the honest answer, but four things are worth knowing.
Timing still counts until midnight on Tuesday. A 50-litre tank of petrol 95 filled before the change costs R166.50 less than the same tank on Wednesday morning.
The increase is almost entirely the oil price. The General Fuel Levy, Road Accident Fund levy and customs duty are fixed amounts per litre, so their share of the pump price falls as the base price rises. About four cents of the R3.33 is a levy, and that is the slate levy recovering earlier shortfalls.
Coastal prices are lower than inland prices, and the gap is the cost of moving fuel from the coast. A Gauteng driver pays R30.25 for petrol 95 from Wednesday. A Durban driver pays R29.38.
And the per-kilometre table above is the number to budget on, not the litre price. A household that knows its monthly distance can calculate its own exposure in two minutes and plan for it.
The adjustment lands on incomes that have not moved with it, with average salaries at a two-year low earlier this year, and alongside bond repayments that rose after the Reserve Bank’s September increase, continuing the higher-for-longer rate path.
From 00:01 on Wednesday, R30.25 is no longer a projection. It is the price.
HOW WE REPORTED THIS
- This article was built from Central Energy Fund data for the October review period, which closed at the end of September 2026, together with commentary on the rand position from Investec, and it states throughout that the figures remain indicative until the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources publishes the official adjustment.
- The per-litre increases were converted into a cost per kilometre across four fuel consumption levels and compared against the March 2026 price, because a litre price is not a unit any driver experiences and a kilometre is, and every assumption behind those calculations is stated in the article.
- A monthly commute illustration was worked on a stated 40km round trip over 22 working days, presented as a worked example rather than as an average, so readers can substitute their own distance.
- Southafriworld's own projection of R29.93 published on 25 September was set against the closing figure of R30.21 and the difference attributed to the rand, which moved from about R16.30 to about R16.70 over the period, because correcting an earlier published estimate in public is the honest treatment and it demonstrates how the currency component works.
- Illuminating paraffin was again identified as carrying the largest per-litre increase of the five fuels, for the second consecutive month, and only one named individual appears in the available material, which is below the usual standard and is disclosed here rather than padded.
