R10bn fund would cover a R3 fuel levy cut for under two months

A R3 fuel levy cut would use up the fund in under two months

A R3-a-litre fuel levy cut for November, December and January, as Build One South Africa (BOSA) proposed on Thursday, would cost about R18 billion, based on National Treasury’s own estimate for the last R3 cut. That is close to double the R10 billion set aside for fuel relief, money that Parliament’s appropriations committee has recorded as still unused.

At the same rate, the R10 billion would pay for a R3 cut for roughly seven weeks. For motorists still absorbing October’s record fuel price increase, the fund could soften the next adjustment, but it could not carry a R3 cut through the festive season on its own.

BOSA leader Mmusi Maimane, who also chairs the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Appropriations, made the proposal in a statement on 15 October 2026. He issued it ahead of the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, which he said Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will table next Wednesday.

BOSA argued that the cut would help over the holiday period, when “millions of South Africans travel to see family”. The budget statement is the government’s next scheduled chance to say whether, and how, the R10 billion will be spent.

What November’s expected increase means for a 50-litre tank

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources raised inland 95 petrol by R3.33 a litre from 7 October, taking it from R26.92 to R30.25. It also lifted the slate levy, which recovers earlier under-recoveries through later prices, from 83.28c to 87.66c a litre.

Mid-month Central Energy Fund (CEF) data, as reported by BusinessTech, shows an under-recovery of R2.28 a litre on 95 petrol, which would take the inland price to about R32.53 if carried through. The CEF’s daily figures are unaudited and keep moving until the review period closes at the end of the month.

On Southafriworld’s calculation, that increase would add about R114 to the cost of a 50-litre tank of inland 95. A R3 cut over the same period would take off R150, leaving that tank about R36 cheaper than in October.

The pressure reaches beyond drivers. COSATU told the committee that workers spend 20% to 30% of their wages on transport, and warned that fuel-driven inflation pushes up interest rates, after the repo rate increase to 7.25% in September.

What a fuel levy cut costs on Treasury’s own figures

When Treasury and the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources announced the first R3 cut on 31 March 2026, they estimated it would cost about R6 billion in foregone revenue for the one-month period to 5 May. Godongwana told SABC News at the time: “April alone is going to be R6 billion revenue loss.”

The relief was extended to 2 June, halved for the rest of June and ended on 1 July, when the levy returned to R4.10 a litre for petrol and R3.93 for diesel. The two departments put the cost of the April to June relief at R17.2 billion.

Southafriworld’s figures divide each amount by Treasury’s estimate of about R6 billion a month and assume fuel sales similar to April’s. That estimate covered a period slightly longer than a calendar month, so the fund’s true reach may be a little longer, but it would still fall short of two months.

The Pan-African Institute for Fiscal and Policy Studies (PA-IFS) reached a similar figure in its submission on the Bill, and asked whether the amount was large enough to stabilise prices at all.

Where the R10 billion sits and who can release it

The Second Special Appropriation (2025/26 Financial Year) Bill asks Parliament to approve, after the fact, a R10 billion withdrawal that Godongwana authorised under section 16(1) of the Public Finance Management Act. That section lets the Finance Minister approve exceptional spending that cannot wait for a parliamentary vote.

According to the Financial and Fiscal Commission’s submission, recorded in the committee’s report dated 7 October 2026, the money has already been transferred to the CEF and is held in its Equalisation Fund. Any drawdown needs the Finance Minister’s prior approval.

Treasury’s explanatory summary, published in the Government Gazette on 27 July 2026, describes the money as cover “for any relief to the basic fuel price”. The basic fuel price is the import-linked part of the pump price, so that route differs from a levy cut, which reduces the tax collected on each litre.

COSATU’s submission asked for the full amount to be used to reduce the slate and subsidise the basic fuel price. BOSA wants it used for a levy cut instead.

There is precedent for a levy cut backed by the fund. In March 2022, Godongwana announced a R1.50 levy cut for April and May, recovered by selling strategic crude oil reserves, with the proceeds paid into the Equalisation Fund for release to the National Revenue Fund under the Central Energy Fund Act.

The committee’s report records a ministerial confirmation, dated 5 October, that the R10 billion remains unused, and says the committee “requires an explanation and a clear plan for delivering consumer relief”. It adds that the allocation is separate from the levy relief already given between April and June.

What happens before the 4 November price change

The committee recommended that the National Assembly pass the Bill without amendments, and that Godongwana report on how the R10 billion could be used to ease the current fuel price crisis. Parliament said on 8 October that the report would be scheduled for debate in the National Assembly.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will announce official November prices shortly before the adjustment, which under the usual first-Wednesday schedule falls on the 4 November public holiday, the day of the local government elections.

It is not yet confirmed whether Godongwana will approve a drawdown before November, whether any relief would come through the levy or the basic fuel price, or how large it would be. The CEF’s November projection may also shift before the review period closes.

Motorists can track current petrol and diesel prices as the official figures are released. Once the National Assembly adopts the committee’s report, the ministers concerned have 60 days to respond to its recommendations, which include quarterly reports on how the R10 billion is used.

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