What we know so far
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has issued an Orange Level 8 warning for disruptive rain over the eastern parts of the Garden Route in the Western Cape and the Koukamma and Kouga local municipalities in the Eastern Cape for Wednesday and Thursday, 6 to 7 May 2026.
The warning is part of a broader cluster of impact-based alerts issued by SAWS as an intense cut-off low pressure system tracks across South Africa from 5 to 7 May. Disaster response teams in the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal have been placed on heightened alert.
The Western Cape Education Department announced on Tuesday that more than 120 public schools across George, Knysna and Oudtshoorn will close for two days in response to the warnings. Classes are expected to resume on Friday, 8 May.
Why it matters
Level 8 sits near the top of the SAWS impact-based scale, which runs from Level 1 to Level 10 and combines the likelihood of severe weather with the severity of its expected impacts. A Level 8 alert points to a high probability of widespread displacement, flooded roads and damaged infrastructure, not a routine wet spell.
The eastern Garden Route remains structurally vulnerable to flooding after repeated severe weather events in recent years. Heavy rain falling on already saturated catchments raises the risk of flash flooding in low-lying suburbs, informal settlements and along key transport corridors such as the N2.
For tens of thousands of learners and educators, the closures mean two lost school days mid-term. For coastal communities, an additional Level 6 warning for damaging winds and waves between Cape Agulhas and Plettenberg Bay raises the risk of damage to harbours, slipways and seafront infrastructure during high tide.
The system’s reach extends well beyond the southern coast. Lower-level warnings cover parts of Gauteng, Mpumalanga, the Free State, North West, the Northern Cape and Limpopo, where severe thunderstorms, localised flooding and damaging winds are forecast.
Key details and figures
SAWS has issued several distinct warnings tied to the system in its regional forecast. The Orange Level 8 warning for disruptive rain covers the eastern parts of the Garden Route in the Western Cape, as well as the Koukamma and Kouga local municipalities in the Eastern Cape, on 6 and 7 May.
A separate Orange Level 6 warning for disruptive rain covers the Central Karoo, Kannaland and Hessequa municipalities in the Western Cape. The same Level 6 warning extends across several Eastern Cape municipalities, including Nelson Mandela Bay, Buffalo City, Dr Beyers Naude, Blue Crane Route, Ndlambe, Great Kei, Mnquma, Mbhashe, King Sabata Dalindyebo, Nyandeni, Port St Johns and Mbizana.
An Orange Level 6 warning for damaging winds and waves was issued for the coastline between Cape Agulhas and Plettenberg Bay. A further Orange Level 6 warning for severe thunderstorms is in place over the eastern parts of KwaZulu-Natal, where heavy downpours, localised flooding and large amounts of small hail over populated areas are expected on Wednesday.
SAWS has also placed Yellow Level 4 and Yellow Level 2 warnings across parts of the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape and other interior provinces for damaging winds, disruptive rain and difficult driving conditions on dirt roads.
According to SAWS, parts of the Garden Route could record between 100 and 200mm of rain in 24 hours, with wind gusts of 70 to 80 km/h and wave heights of 5 to 8 metres along the affected coast. A Yellow Level 2 warning for disruptive snow has been issued for high-lying areas in the northern and central parts of the Eastern Cape, with the risk of livestock losses and traffic disruptions on mountain passes.
The Western Cape Education Department confirmed that the closures apply to circuits 3 and 8 in George, circuit 4 in Knysna, and circuits 5 and 6 in Oudtshoorn. Western Cape Education Minister David Maynier said the department’s default position remained to keep schools open, and that closures had been ordered out of caution given the severity of the warnings in place.
What happens next
SAWS expects the cut-off low to remain over the southern and south-eastern parts of the country through Wednesday and Thursday. The weather service said conditions are expected to improve from Friday, 8 May, although cold conditions may persist into the weekend in some high-lying areas.
The Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality’s Disaster Management Centre said it had activated its Joint Operations Centre to coordinate the response to potential flooding. Other coastal municipalities along the Garden Route are expected to maintain emergency standby through the storm window.
Affected schools are scheduled to reopen on Friday, 8 May, unless further weather-related risks force additional closures. The Western Cape Education Department said it would continue to monitor the developing weather situation and reassess conditions before the end of the week. Parents have been asked to remain in contact with individual schools for any updates.
SAWS has urged residents in affected areas to postpone non-essential travel, avoid flooded roads and swollen rivers, secure loose outdoor items, and monitor official channels for updated warnings as the cut-off low evolves. A sharp drop in temperatures across most of the country, except the extreme north-eastern parts, is expected on Wednesday and Thursday, with maximum temperatures forecast in the teens or lower in some high-lying areas.
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