What we know so far
The South African Weather Service has issued its highest available severe weather alerts as a powerful cut-off low-pressure system sweeps across the Cape provinces, delivering life-threatening floods, disruptive snowfall and dangerous sea conditions on Thursday, 4 June 2026, while simultaneously releasing a seasonal forecast warning that South Africa faces an emerging El Nino threat through the remainder of winter and into summer.
SAWS has issued an Orange Level 8 warning for disruptive rainfall leading to flooding of roads and bridges, danger to life due to fast-moving streams and rivers, and the closure of major roads in the eastern parts of the Garden Route District Municipality in the Western Cape and the South Coast of the Eastern Cape up to East London.
The Level 8 warning covers George, Knysna, Bitou and Oudtshoorn, where up to 200 millimetres of rain is expected across the two-day weather event. The warning comes less than a month after severe flooding killed at least 11 people across the Western Cape and caused extensive damage to homes, roads and critical infrastructure.
SAWS has attributed the system to a Cut-Off Low pressure system expected to significantly affect the southern provinces from Wednesday into Thursday, compounded by the fact that some areas of the Western and Eastern Cape are still recovering from a previous cut-off low system.
Why it matters
The severity of this event is amplified by two compounding factors: saturated ground that cannot absorb further rainfall, and a seasonal outlook that warns conditions will remain volatile.
The Head of the Disaster Risk Management Centre in the Garden Route District Municipality, Gerhard Otto, confirmed the danger: “All our dams are full because of the previous rains we’ve had. The areas are saturated, so any drop of rain falling is now flowing into the rivers. We know that rivers are flooding as we speak.”
AfriGIS senior consultant and Geospatial Scientist Marna Roos warned that 22 of the Garden Route’s 209 informal settlements are at high risk of losing all physical access if key river crossings are rendered impassable during the storm, becoming completely isolated.
The N1 has been closed at Leeu Gamka due to flooding, with authorities confirming that no safe alternative route is currently available. Rockfalls have also been reported on the R324 at the Tradouw Pass and sections of the N12.
The simultaneous release of SAWS’s June-to-October seasonal forecast adds a longer-term dimension to the warning. The Seasonal Climate Watch report for June to October 2026 warns that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is currently in a neutral state but is predicted to rapidly move towards an El Nino state within the next month and continue to strengthen up to early summer, lasting at least until the end of the 2026/27 summer season.
Key details and figures
On-the-ground impacts on Thursday were severe and spreading. More than 200mm of rainfall was recorded in the Bitou municipal area, while Knysna recorded 197mm.
Disaster management teams in the Garden Route began evacuating residents as the storm intensified, while schools in the Eden and Central Karoo education districts were closed for two days as a precautionary measure.
Eskom reported ongoing power outages affecting communities including Harkerville and Covie in the Bitou municipal area, as well as Sedgefield and Karatara in the Knysna region, with repair teams from Eskom and local municipalities working to restore power where conditions allow.
The Department of Water and Sanitation confirmed that dams across both the Central Karoo and Garden Route districts are currently spilling, and several rivers remain at flood level.
The Garden Route River and Dam overflowed for the first time this year on Thursday, 4 June 2026, following 24 hours of persistent rainfall.
On the snow front, SAWS issued a Yellow Level 2 Warning for disruptive snow leading to icy roads and traffic disruptions over the north-eastern high-lying areas of the Eastern Cape, and a Yellow Level 4 Warning for wind and waves leading to difficulty in navigation at sea between Plettenberg Bay and East London.
Snowfall is expected over the Drakensberg mountains of KwaZulu-Natal on Thursday, 4 June 2026, though SAWS said the depth of snowfall is not expected to cause significant disruption at Van Reenen’s Pass on the N3 highway.
The seasonal forecast carries serious implications beyond the immediate storm. SAWS’s Seasonal Climate Watch for June to October 2026 forecasts above-normal rainfall for eastern coastal areas during winter and early spring, but below-normal rainfall for the south-western and southern coastal regions, combined with above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures for most of South Africa throughout the forecast period.
Intensive rainfall may overwhelm stormwater and sewage systems, resulting in flash floods in areas prone to flooding, while below-normal rainfall in the south-western and southern areas, combined with above-normal temperatures, is likely to increase water loss and add pressure on water-scarce regions.
Above-normal temperatures are expected to increase heat-related health risks, particularly among vulnerable groups such as children, older persons, outdoor workers and people with chronic illnesses. SAWS also flagged increased ultraviolet exposure during clear-sky periods as an associated risk.
What happens next
SAWS has urged the public to monitor official weather updates, avoid unnecessary travel during periods of heavy rain and flooding, never attempt to cross flooded roads, bridges or swollen rivers, secure loose outdoor objects, exercise extreme caution along coastal areas, provide shelter for livestock and pets, and prepare emergency kits with flashlights, warm clothing, blankets and essential supplies.
With the El Nino transition expected within weeks, South African authorities and communities across the eastern coastal strip should expect continued above-normal rainfall through early spring. For the Western Cape and southern coastal regions, the opposite challenge of below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures points toward water pressure and heightened fire risk as the season progresses.
SAWS has stated that decision-makers should note these possible outcomes and communicate with affected businesses and communities, particularly as above-normal temperatures during early spring increase cooling demand.
The immediate priority remains the Garden Route, where saturated ground, overflowing dams and rising rivers leave very little margin before another flooding disaster of the kind seen in May. Disaster management teams remain fully activated, and residents in the most exposed informal settlements face the prospect of losing road access entirely if current conditions worsen.
