South African motorists are facing a likely fuel price increase in March after mid to late February indicators turned negative. The latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) fuel price recovery data points to small increases for petrol, but a much larger jump for diesel, which tends to feed into transport and delivery costs across the economy.
If the current indicators hold through month-end, the expected March adjustments are:
- Petrol 93: increase of 3 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: increase of 5 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% sulphur (wholesale): increase of 46 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% sulphur (wholesale): increase of 49 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: increase of 27 cents per litre
The final March fuel price changes are not confirmed yet. They will be announced by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) based on the full month’s oil and exchange-rate data.
Why the outlook changed in late February
Through much of February, petrol recoveries hovered near break-even, but the data deteriorated in the third week of the month. CEF’s daily snapshot for 19 February showed an average under-recovery of about 2.9 cents per litre for petrol 93 and about 4.8 cents per litre for petrol 95, with diesel under-recoveries far deeper at around 46 to 49 cents per litre.
In simple terms, under-recovery means the current regulated pump price is tracking below what the monthly formula implies, based on international refined fuel prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate. If that persists to the end of the month, the shortfall is typically corrected in the next fuel price adjustment.
Diesel is the biggest pressure point
The petrol increases currently indicated are small enough that many households may not feel an immediate shock at the pump. Diesel is a different story.
Diesel is priced on a wholesale basis in the regulated adjustment, and it is a key input for freight, agriculture, construction, and public and private transport fleets. When diesel rises meaningfully, the knock-on effects often appear later in delivery charges and consumer prices, especially where businesses have limited room to absorb costs.
What motorists are paying now, and what a small petrol rise would mean
DMRE’s February price breakdown lists inland petrol 93 at 1999 cents per litre and inland petrol 95 at 2010 cents per litre. Coastal petrol 95 is listed at 1927 cents per litre.
If the indicative March increases of 3 cents and 5 cents are confirmed and all other components remain aligned, it would roughly imply:
- Inland petrol 93 moving from R19.99 to about R20.02 per litre
- Inland petrol 95 moving from R20.10 to about R20.15 per litre
- Coastal petrol 95 moving from R19.27 to about R19.32 per litre
These are illustrative calculations based on current published prices and the latest projected adjustments. The final outcome can still shift before the DMRE announcement.
What is pushing prices higher
Two factors are doing most of the work in the February data.
Oil prices and geopolitical risk
Oil prices rose in February amid renewed geopolitical tension involving the United States and Iran, which can add a risk premium to crude and refined products. Reuters has reported oil closing at a six-month high during this period as markets assessed rising tensions.
South Africa is exposed because it imports crude oil and finished products priced in dollars. When global prices rise, the Basic Fuel Price component tends to rise too, unless a stronger rand offsets it.
A key chokepoint risk
Market attention often focuses on the Strait of Hormuz because of its role in seaborne oil flows. The US Energy Information Administration has estimated that oil flow through the strait averaged about 20 million barrels per day in 2024, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
Even without an actual supply cut, the risk of disruption can lift prices, which filters into South Africa’s monthly fuel price build.
The rand helped, but the cushion is thinner
The exchange rate has provided some offset at times, but the protection is not guaranteed. CEF’s 19 February snapshot shows an exchange rate around R16.09 to the dollar for that day’s calculation inputs.
A firmer rand generally lowers the rand cost of imported fuel. A weaker rand does the opposite, and it can compound the impact of higher oil prices. This is why late-month currency moves can still change the final petrol and diesel outcomes materially.
How South Africa’s fuel price is set
South Africa’s regulated fuel price is adjusted monthly based on international and local factors, including crude oil prices, refined product prices, and the exchange rate. The DMRE publishes the official adjustment, while CEF data is widely used as a running indicator of where the month is tracking.
For consumers, the practical takeaway is that mid-month and late-month numbers are indicators, not the final decision. The direction can still change if oil prices pull back or the rand strengthens meaningfully before the cut-off date.
What to watch before the March announcement
Three signals tend to matter most in the final stretch of the month:
- The trend in Brent crude and refined product prices
- The rand-dollar exchange rate direction
- Whether petrol recoveries stay slightly under-recovered or swing back into over-recovery territory
For now, the data points to increases rather than another cut, with diesel carrying the largest risk for broader cost pressures.
