What we know so far
South African defence exports reached R10.1 billion in 2025, nearly triple the R3.6 billion recorded in 2024, and industry has now set a target of more than R30 billion a year within five years.
The target was put to the inaugural Defence Industry Lekgotla in Pretoria this week by James Kerr, head of the manufacturing committee at the Aerospace, Maritime and Defence Industries Association.
Kerr told delegates South Africa could realistically capture 1% of international arms transfers within five years, which would represent growth of more than 200% on 2025 export revenues.
The underlying export figures come from the National Conventional Arms Control Committee, which tabled its 2025 annual report before Parliament’s Joint Standing Committee on Defence on Friday, 13 March 2026.
That report recorded 582 munitions export permits approved to 42 countries, with a combined value of R10.1 billion. A further 132 dual-use export permits worth R600 million were issued, and 366 import permits worth R269 million.
No permit denials were recorded across any category during 2025.
Kerr also said South Africa ranked 18th on the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s list of the largest suppliers of major arms for 2021 to 2025, and that the country has exported to 115 nations, with Africa accounting for 15 to 20% of clients.
He said two to three South African companies could enter the SIPRI Top 100 arms producers within ten years, noting that Denel held a place on that list for some years.
What South African defence exports mean for jobs and the state
The pitch made this week is not only about sales. It is a request for state support, and that is where the story touches public money.
The measures put forward include government funding for exports, state guarantees on payments, support for barter deals, special defence economic zones, and the fast-tracking of a South African export-import bank to lend directly to exporters.
Industry also wants presidential promotion of exports, defence attachés marketing products in designated countries, and government-to-government contracting channels.
A further proposal is that the South African National Defence Force and Armscor adopt what Kerr called a procure to export philosophy, buying local products to endorse them and so encourage foreign sales.
The stated return is employment. Kerr argued export growth could transform the sector into “a resilient, sovereign, and globally competitive industrial base” creating high-value technical jobs.
No job number was attached to the R30 billion target at the Lekgotla, and none appears in the material presented.
Michelle Nxumalo, chairperson of the AMD Export Council, set out five steps: export growth and market expansion, localisation and industrial development, national strategic alignment, modernisation of the arms control framework, and funding.
Deputy Minister of Defence Bantu Holomisa separately told the Lekgotla that public-private partnerships could assist the Department of Defence during a period of budget austerity.
Key details and figures
What South Africa actually exported in 2025, from the NCACC annual report:
| Category | 2025 figure |
|---|---|
| Munitions export permits | 582 permits, R10.1 billion, 42 countries |
| Munitions share of exports | R4.8 billion |
| Largest single contract | R3.3 billion, 73,586 rounds and shells, Germany |
| Second notable contract | R676 million, 35,000 rounds and shells, Turkey |
| Small arms and light weapons | About R230 million, over 10,000 items to 17 countries |
| Largest light weapons order | 9,557 items to Zimbabwe, R35 million |
| Naval vessels | Two to Tanzania, R33 million |
| Dual-use exports | 132 permits, R600 million |
| Permit denials | None recorded |
There is one figure in the same report that the Lekgotla framing does not address.
Contracting permits, which represent forward commitments rather than completed shipments, fell from R69 billion in 2024 to R41 billion in 2025. That is a decline of roughly 41% in the pipeline during the same year that shipped exports tripled.
The NCACC attributes quarter-to-quarter fluctuations largely to the timing and structure of multi-year contracts. Company registrations rose 5% between 2024 and 2025.
Longer term, 2025 was not a straight line upward. Exports stood at R4.6 billion in 2022, R7.1 billion in 2023 and R3.6 billion in 2024.
A second point of tension sits inside the SIPRI target itself.
SIPRI measures transfers using a trend-indicator value covering major conventional weapons. Its methodology expressly excludes small arms and light weapons, ammunition, support equipment, technology transfers and services.
Munitions accounted for R4.8 billion of South Africa’s R10.1 billion in 2025, and Kerr identified munitions as the segment growing most strongly while armoured vehicle sales decline. Much of that growth therefore falls outside what SIPRI counts, which complicates a target expressed as a percentage share of SIPRI-measured transfers.
Kerr’s placing of South Africa at 18th could not be independently confirmed in SIPRI’s published 2021 to 2025 factsheet, which identifies 66 supplier states and reports that the 25 largest accounted for 98% of total volume without publishing a full ranked list in the summary material.
What happens next
Parliamentary oversight committees will track the outcomes of the Lekgotla, according to proceedings reported on 22 July.
That gives the R30 billion target a formal accountability route, since the NCACC is required to report to Parliament quarterly and annually under the National Conventional Arms Control Act 41 of 2002.
The next measurable checkpoint is the NCACC quarterly reporting cycle, followed by the 2026 annual report, which will show whether the export surge held and whether the contracting pipeline recovered.
Industry’s requested reforms all require government action. The export-import bank, the special defence economic zones, the green listing of certain countries and items, and the move to a digital permit system are decisions for the state rather than for manufacturers.
None has been announced. Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Parks Tau told the Lekgotla on 21 July that the industry has the base to tap into a global surge in defence spending, without committing to specific measures.
The composition of the export book is likely to attract scrutiny. Germany was the largest single customer in 2025, and the question of arms diversion to conflict zones was raised during the annual report engagement in Parliament.
The Africa Aerospace and Defence exhibition, scheduled for later in 2026, will be the next major point at which order announcements are typically made.
