A petrol price increase of up to 85 cents a litre is building for September, and the shortfall has been widening rather than closing as August has gone on.
For a Gauteng motorist filling a 50-litre tank of 95 unleaded, an increase of that size would add roughly R42 to every fill. Diesel users are facing far worse, with the current shortfall running at nearly R3 a litre, or about R150 on the same size tank.
The figures come from the Central Energy Fund, which tracks daily the gap between what importers pay for fuel and what the regulated pump price allows them to charge. That gap, known as an under-recovery, is what the next monthly adjustment is built on.
Nothing is confirmed yet. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources sets the final figure using the average of international product prices and the rand over the four weeks from 31 July to 27 August, and the change takes effect on Wednesday 2 September. What is already clear is that an increase of this size would erase the 52 cent cut both petrol grades received on 5 August within a single month.
Why the September petrol price increase keeps getting bigger
The under-recovery is not a fixed number. It is recalculated every trading day, and it has moved steadily against motorists this month.
On the reported snapshots, the shortfall on 95 unleaded has tracked as follows:
- 14 August: 74 cents a litre
- 17 August: 79 cents a litre, with 93 unleaded at 68 cents
- 19 August: 85 cents a litre, with 93 unleaded at 74 cents
Diesel has followed the same path and from a much higher base, moving from about R2.75 a litre for 500ppm and R2.93 for 50ppm on 17 August to R2.80 and R2.99 two days later. Illuminating paraffin, which many low-income households still use for cooking and heating, is tracking an increase of about R2.20 a litre.
The driver is oil. Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop reported Brent crude at about $91.50 a barrel this week, against a month-to-date average of $86.40, after attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz resumed and talks between the United States and Iran stalled.
The rand has been the only thing working in motorists’ favour, trading in a range of roughly R16.19 to R16.26 to the dollar during the review period. That is a far calmer currency backdrop than the one that produced April’s record fuel price increases, when diesel rose R7.51 a litre in a single month and Treasury cut R3 off the general fuel levy to soften the blow.
What the petrol price increase means for a 50-litre tank
If the 17 August projections had held to month end, 93 unleaded would move to about R26.10 a litre inland from R25.42, and 95 unleaded to about R26.37 inland from R25.58. At the coast, 95 would move to about R25.50 from R24.71.
The wholesale price of 500ppm diesel would climb to roughly R28.92 a litre inland from R26.17, and to about R28.05 at the coast from R25.30. Retail diesel is not regulated and varies between filling stations.
The cumulative damage this year is already substantial. The price of 95 unleaded has risen by more than R4 a litre, or about 20%, since the start of 2026, while the wholesale diesel price is up more than R6.30, or close to 33%.
Put in tank terms, a Gauteng motorist is already paying about R208.50 more to fill 50 litres of petrol than at the end of 2025, and about R319 more for the same amount of diesel.
Diesel is where the wider economy feels it. It moves freight, farm machinery and the bulk of the country’s food distribution, which is why sustained diesel increases eventually reach shelf prices. Southafriworld reported earlier this year on how input cost pressure pushed beef prices up sharply and changed what shoppers buy.
Where fuel prices stand right now
| Fuel grade | Price from 5 August 2026 | Shortfall on 19 August |
|---|---|---|
| 93 petrol, inland | R25.42 a litre | 74c a litre |
| 95 petrol, inland | R25.58 a litre | 85c a litre |
| 95 petrol, coast | R24.71 a litre | 85c a litre |
| Diesel 0.05%, wholesale inland | R26.17 a litre | R2.80 a litre |
| Diesel 0.005%, wholesale coast | R25.53 a litre | R2.99 a litre |
Fuel is the single biggest reason inflation is where it is. Statistics South Africa reported on Wednesday that headline consumer inflation slowed to 4.3% in July from 5% in June, largely because petrol was cut by R1.96 a litre that month.
Even after that cut, the annual rate for fuel was still 20.6%, with petrol R4.23 a litre more expensive than in July 2025 and diesel R5.40 more.
Bishop set out what that means for the broader price picture. “Without fuel prices, CPI Inflation would be 3.7% year-on-year,” she said, adding that the expected September increase would cancel out August’s cut and likely push the headline rate back to 5%.
Fuel is one of the few essential categories where price growth has run far ahead of the rest of the basket. By contrast, the Competition Commission found earlier this year that internet prices have stayed below headline inflation.
Government moves to change how the slate levy is repaid
Separately, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources has gazetted a proposed change to how the slate levy is administered.
The slate account records the running gap between what importers pay and what they are allowed to charge. When it falls deep into deficit, the slate levy is added to the pump price to reimburse them. The department says the cumulative slate stood at a negative balance of R13.32 billion at the end of May 2026.
Under the proposal, importers and wholesalers with a cumulative negative balance above a threshold set by the department would be allowed to retain the slate levy they collect, as partial reimbursement, instead of waiting for the Central Energy Fund to pay it out. The retention would stop once the under-recovery balance falls below R500 million, and companies would still be subject to reporting, reconciliation and audit requirements.
The department has said the change would not alter the pump price or the size of the slate levy itself. It is an administrative reform aimed at shortening reimbursement delays.
The levy itself has been falling. Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe’s department set it at 113.94 cents a litre from 1 July, down 43.8 cents, and it has since fallen to just under 62 cents. That drop is a large part of why petrol was cut in August even as diesel rose by between R1.23 and R1.38 a litre depending on grade.
What still has to happen before 2 September
The four-week review period closes on 27 August, and the department normally publishes the confirmed adjustment in the final days of the month.
Several things remain unsettled. The daily under-recovery figures published so far are unaudited snapshots, not the monthly average that determines the final price. Published figures during August have ranged from about 63 cents to 85 cents a litre on petrol depending on the date, and no official September price has been announced. Bishop’s projection of a return to 5% inflation is a forecast, and the department has not commented publicly on the current projections.
Southafriworld requested comment from the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources on the September projections. No response had been received by publication time. A response will be added if received.
Motorists who want to lock in the current price have until midnight on Tuesday 1 September. Stats SA publishes the August consumer price index in September, and the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee announces its next decision on 23 September.
